by Eric Boa
Mark Twain is a fine observer of the vagaries and complexities of life and a great person to quote. When his obituary was prematurely published, he said that “reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”. But it is his insight on how to tackle complexities that I treasure most. “The secret of getting ahead is getting started. The secret of getting started is breaking your complex overwhelming tasks into small manageable tasks, and starting on the first one.”
There are few things more complicated than long-standing human conflicts. The energetic and exhausted Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary for State, is currently performing his Henry Kissinger tribute act in the Middle East, a region where complexities abound and the scope for compromise is tiny. He has few available tools of persuasion (coercion?) given the decline of the US’s global influence, yet he keeps talking to people because of the compelling need to stop conflict and reduce suffering. I have no idea what ‘small manageable tasks’ might mean to Blinken but good politicians are excellent pragmatists, and I sense that he is one of them. I wish him well, as I do anyone brave enough to stop conflicts and thus give our editor a little hope for 2024.
Conflicts and their origins are by definition complex and have enormous and widespread consequences. The flow of refugees and migrants are two such examples, distorting politics and absorbing huge injections of funds. Good luck to those looking for solutions that address not only the root causes of conflict but mitigate the immediate impacts on people.
These thoughts are prompted by a renewed interest in biodiversity loss and climate change (I’ll also refer to them as the dual crises). I have skirted around them in past work in international development, wary of being drawn into endless debates. No longer. I’m ready for my next complex, overwhelming task: what are the best ways for individuals and communities to tackle the dual crises? Set aside the inevitable gaps in basic knowledge about the crises, and let’s focus on what works best in halting environmental degradation and coping with the consequences of climate change.
The complexities of the climate and biodiversity crises are in my opinion greater than those of human conflicts. Both are high in the Existential Hit Parade, yet there’s ample evidence to suggest that the dual crises are top of the charts. I’ll discuss later why this matters, but first consider why conflicts are often put first in existential threats. Conflicts are visible and real, awash with wanton destruction and human suffering and fuelled by recognizable human traits (fear, resentment, greed). We know the causes of conflict and even if they seem intractable there have been major successes (feel free to disagree). South Africa did not descend into chaos when apartheid collapsed; Northern Ireland is calmer after the Good Friday Agreement; there are no snipers in Sarajevo.
Flooding, fires and other natural disasters associated with weather also inflict horrific damage and suffering, yet it is less clear how these are linked to climate change and, even more crucially, its often disputed causes. The first hints that the planet was warming came in the late 1930s. The discovery of an ozone hole in Antarctica in 1985 led to the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) in 1988. Concerns about losses of biodiversity are more recent – the term only emerged in the mid-1980s – yet have gathered great momentum in recent years. Early considerations of climate change focused on what was happening and why. Conveying the importance and impacts of biodiversity loss and climate change relies heavily on modelling, an imperfect method – but the best one we have available.
Farmers will have to change what crops they grow because of climate change (Esteli, Nicaragua)
Despite the abstractness of climate change, the difficulty of visualising what it means and grasping its complex origins, it has remained high in the Existential Hit Parade. This matters because it focuses attention, widens public awareness, stokes advocacy, gathers political momentum and releases funds. All this is good news, but I’m still feeling overwhelmed and need to think again about the next ‘manageable task’ in my quest for enlightenment. I’m a big fan of meta-analyses, or systematic reviews, which look at past research and interventions and summarise the major findings. Systematic reviews are widely used in human health and increasingly for development interventions, such as cash transfers (I’ll explain this shortly).
My initial impression is that systematic reviews of climate change tend to focus on its effects in particular sectors, such as livestock welfare. Tackling the responses to climate change and biodiversity sector by sector is undoubtedly useful but is a mammoth undertaking. What applies to livestock will differ from crops for example. I’m still looking for a ‘small manageable task’ that might lead to insights on what practical actions and responses will alleviate biodiversity loss and climate change.
The Global North has many large societies and organisations for people interested in wildlife, plants, trees and the wider environment. (The Global South much less so – but that’s another matter.) I’ve started a small survey of UK-based societies and how they approach the dual crises. It’s impressive to see the thought that’s gone in to practical efforts, as well as significant public advocacy, by leading non-governmental bodies. The National Trust (5.3m members) manages swathes of lands and historic building; the Royal Horticultural Society (600,000) supports gardeners; the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (1.2 million) maintains over 200 nature reserves; and the Woodland Trust (500,000) owns over 1000 woods.
The total membership and area of lands managed and cared for by this small sample of organisations represents a significant chunk of society and natural and managed environments in the UK. These organisations have detailed and well-written policies and strategies and are in regular dialogue with their members. The organisations represent a vast source of information on what works well, how members respond to advice and many other aspects of promoting practical efforts to tackle the dual crises.
There are of course caveats. What works in the UK may not pan out in poorer countries. But it is a start in surmounting the overwhelming task of assessing what communities can do. If the proposed survey yields useful results, a similar approach could be applied to the US. The Sierra Club, The National Audubon Society (2 million) and The Nature Conservancy have a combined membership of 5 million and also work internationally.
There are common threads in responses to the major threats that top the Existential Hit Parade and the opportunity to learn from different sectors. Some years ago, when researching plant health systems, I came across 'Millions Saved: Proven Successes in Global Health’*. I read it from cover to cover and made extensive notes. I was intrigued by a scheme to improve the health of the poor in Mexico and cash transfers that were conditional on vaccinating children, for example. A similar scheme known as 'Bolsa Familia' in Brazil had a dramatic impact on elevating people out of poverty. I didn’t see immediately how lessons learned could be transferred from global health to plant health, yet shortly afterwards a companion volume, Millions Fed** was published, looking at the successes of agricultural development.
I’m still bamboozled by the amount that’s been published on the biodiversity and climate change crises but I’m a little less overwhelmed when considering how individuals and communities can respond practically. The UK organisations suggest novel delivery channels for advice on remedial actions on a broad scale and left me wondering what role The Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock could play in tackling the dual crises. They represent two million farmers in a country where the impact of biodiversity loss and climate change continues to increase and with global consequences. What success have they had in getting messages across to their members?
One of many short-lived efforts to tackle climate change (Freetown, Sierra Leone)
Finally, a little puff for the recently launched the Global Centre on Biodiversity for Climate (GCBC)***, supported by the UK Government. We may be rowing back on green commitments but there are still politicians who are committed to tackling the major existential threats of our time.
* Read more about Millions Saved here: http://millionssaved.cgdev.org/
** For Millions Fed go here: https://www.ifpri.org/project/millions-fed