The Falklands to Las Islas Malvinas?

 by Stoker

Argentine gauchos having mate at Hope Place - Saladero, East Falkland.

Watercolour by William Pownell Dale, 1850s. Stanley Museum, Falkland Islands.

In one’s idle moments it is always a modest internal entertainment to conjure up an article that could upset the maximum number of readers, including, naturellement, the revered editor himself. And by George, last night it came to me!

So here goes. Of course you may never get to read it, as it may be impaled with great force upon the editorial spike that lurks on the Napoleonic desk reserved for the purpose in the corner of the editorial suite, never to be seen again.*

Those of you who follow world news will have been aware of the rumblings emanating from Argentina since the election as President of the remarkably side-boarded Javier Milei.  Now, Mr Milei is a man about whom multi volumes could and no doubt will be written. He is, one might say, a trifle eccentric, not just in the facial hair region, but also in having a penchant for flourishing chain-saws to demonstrate his determination to cut the state budget, and having his favourite dog cloned four times, each pup being named after a Milei-favoured economist (the senior being Milton, after Milton Friedman).  He is very much a chum of Donald Trump, and has publicly congratulated The Donald on his resounding success in Venezuela. He has also expressed delight in that he has Jewish ancestry through his Italian grandfather, and was honoured with the grant of Italian citizenship by admirer Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.

Mr Milei was an economic commentator and writer before he took seriously to politics six years ago, and describes himself as a libertarian and reforming right- winger, albeit with a dash of traditionalism.  In fact, if not for the out and out extraversion and the side burns, you might take him for a male Thatcher.  But not in Argentina, where La Bella Thatcher is not the most popular of Brits. There is of course a reason for that - a small group of islands, 778 of them, about 300 miles off the eastern coast of southern Argentina. The Falklands. Or to the Argentinians, Las Islas Malvinas.

Forty-four years ago there was a little trouble when Argentina asserted its historic claim to the islands and invaded.  After a short, nasty war, British troops took the islands back.  This was a good thing in some ways: the people who lived on the islands wanted then and still want, by enormous majorities, to remain under British sovereignty; it enabled the unpopular Thatcher government to win an enormous majority at the next UK election and continue its great work; and it drove the very nasty military junta then governing Argentina from office and enabled the reestablishment of democratic government.  But there were a couple of bad things which resulted: the breakdown in relations between the UK and Argentina who had formerly been allies; and also a failure to tackle the long-term problem of the UK governing a remote group of economically unviable, lightly-populated islands at the other end of the world.

One of the reasons for the 1982 invasion was that Britain through the foreign office minister Nicholas Ridley (who would have found much common ground with President Milei, including hair styling) was attempting a subtle long-term transfer of control over the islands to the Argentines.  The junta, looking for a popular cause to restore its fading authority, misread the low-key negotiations as a sign of weakness on the part of the UK and put the army boots in, or on.

Alas, in a very British way, nothing has been done since to remedy this remote anomaly, rather like the continuing but somewhat closer sore point of Gibraltar (we have no strategic reason to control the Straits, and barely any naval ships capable of getting that far anyway.)  The Falklands have a population of only about 3,500, of whom over 1,000 are British military and associated personnel. It should not be beyond the wit of even a British civil servant to offer those Falklanders who wanted it, full British citizenship and resettlement in the UK. Those that wanted to remain in the South Atlantic could have safeguards from Argentina, backup removal rights to the UK, and become inhabitants of Las Islas Malvinas. Then we could all become friends again.

Mr Milei, initially a very popular president who has carried through many economic reforms with resounding success, is finding himself, like Mrs T in her first term of office, that those affected by change and movement do not see the benefits of what is going on straightaway. Great reformers need longer than four or five years to show how wonderful they are. Mr Milei is three years in and his poll ratings are declining, in spite of help on the economic front from his chum in the White House, who is very anxious to build popularity south of the equator.

So, how to reverse those falling polls and get the Argentinian in the street back on side for the 2027 election – and, a problem not common (yet) in western democracies, keep the military in their barracks? Las Islas Malvinas, step forward.  Not an invasion, though given the strength of the British military it would be a walkover this time.  Mr Milei is more subtle.  And an economist.  The Falklands/Malvinas are surrounded by some of the last great untapped oilfields on the planet.  Their reserves are thought to exceed any others. And with modern technology they are relatively easily accessible.  This has been noticed and Britain has issued exploration licences to get ready to, as one might say, drill baby, drill.

President Milei is not happy about that. The oil company Rockhopper, owned by British and Israeli interests, has been told that its actions are not approved by the Argentine government, and that legislation is likely to be introduced to sanction the company – a problem when the only realistic supply source is Argentina. Mr Milei has been talking to Mr Trump, and Mr Trump, not impressed by British support that he did not get in his troubles with Iran in the Gulf, has let it be known that he is “reevaluating” his support for UK interests in the south Atlantic. In reality that is not much change; the USA has always been equivocal about Britain’s guardianship of the Falklands. 

Will this lead to war?  Wes Streeting (remember him?), now Minister of Defence, has rattled his cardboard sword a little, but that frightens nobody.  The UK is not up to fighting and Mr Milei knows it, but certainly does not want his troops out on manoeuvres either. Mr Trump? Who knows what he’s thinking, but the Trump USA is becoming a very large force in the world of oil.

But here’s a thought.  Why doesn’t the UK do a deal? Take the Falklanders who want to get off the islands, assist Argentina with oil exploration in return for a share in the oil revenues – from which the evacuated islanders can be paid generous pensions. Argentina would be an ally, there would be some useful revenue for Mr Burnham’s strategy of “spend, spend, spend”, Mr Trump would be pleased, and a potential military demolition of a South American democracy would be prevented whilst Mr Milei completed his restructuring of a beautiful and gracious country.

Everybody is a winner. Well, not the Greens or Ed Miliband or Greta Thurnberg, but never mind.

And Gibraltar has a precedent that might cure that running sore with Spain.

*We don’t censor on Only Connect and only reject articles if they are badly written, boring, or factually incorrect. Whilst I have, on occasion, had to correct some grammatical errors and stylistic infelicities in Stoker’s contributions, his articles are never badly written or, Heaven forfend, boring. And in this particular case, I agree with his view that the UK should find a way to exit the Falkland Islands. The poor man fails again to get under my Liberal skin.     Ed.