Mr Trump Leaves Town

 by Stoker

The press pack are camping on the White House lawn. No really, at the moment they are, as the Donald has knocked down the east Wing of the White House to build his BEAUTIFUL ballroom (try knocking down the east wing of Buckingham Palace or the Elysee. Some things are easier in Washington.) But the media are happy to be out in the November damp of Washington DC in the hope of getting some juicy quotes and explosive photographs of the 47^th President exploding in rage over political events in New York, his home town.

But the President is not obliging just at the moment (he may have done by the time you come to read this); if anything he seems quietly amused by the election of a Communist; sorry, a COMMUNIST, to run the Big Apple.  Tuesday 4^th November was election day with an almost record voter turnout (partially at least due to big efforts in voter registration) and was won by Zohran Mamdani, a Democrat who describes himself as a socialist, defeating Andrew Cuomo in the preliminaries who describes himself as a Democrat but who then ran as an Independent, who defeated in turn for the Democrat nomination Eric Adams the current Governor who describes himself as an independent.  All clear so far?  No, me neither.

What we seem to have is a dramatic left turn from New York Democrat voters who rejected the old mainstream, machine Democrats embodied in Cuomo and Adams for a revolutionary in the shape of Mr Mamdani whose proposals we will come to later.  What? No Republican candidate? Oh yes; honourable mention to Curtis Silwa who took 7% of the vote.  Thank you for your presence Mr Silwa, but it has to be said that New York is not currently a GOP heartland.  More interesting is the division of votes between Mamdani and Cuomo: 50% (1,036,051 votes) to 43% (844,995). Not quite so overwhelming for Mamdani as the BBC might have you believe.  One suspects, with an old-fashioned cynicism, that many Republican voters went for Mr Cuomo.  Though what is even more obvious is that Republican voters, professional types, mid and upper income types, even middle-aged types, have moved out of NY City into the surrounding suburbs which are now becoming majority Republican.

So why might Mr Trump be amused?  For several reasons. Because he thinks Mr Mamdani’s mayoralty will be a disaster; because Mr M’s victory will further damage the Democrat Party which is in total disarray but knows that the NY programme will not work in the wider US (or in New York, come to that); because he knows that New York does not matter in the wider scheme of things. The days when it symbolised the wider, greater USA are long gone. And even, perhaps, because Mr Trump himself moved to Florida long ago.

Mr Mamdani is a Moslem, an immigrant, an attractive candidate, a bright young guy who has never before held political office.  He ignored the party machine and focused on what was bothering New Yorkers, especially the young. Having found out – mainly rent levels and cost of living - he went after the big minorities – Latinos and black.  And he ran a brilliant and focused campaign to get his supporters out in huge numbers, a real lesson there.

Mr Cuomo of course assumed he had the Latin community sewn up and ran a very conventional campaign, appealing to the older voters and the middle-aged.  But if New York is anything it is a young people’s city now, young people who not untypically pay nearly half their salaries in rent.  There are big earners in New York City of course, but they tend to live in the above-mentioned suburbs, whilst the actual NY inhabitants do the menial jobs.  They turned out to vote, a new sensation for many of them, and the Mamdani strategy worked. 

Which is another reason for Mr Trump’s quiet amusement.  Mr Mamdani really can’t do much about rental levels. He can impose all the rent controls he likes when he takes office in January, but that will not provide any extra apartments at all, rather the opposite.  He can have as many state-owned supermarkets as he likes (one of his campaign promises) but anybody who is in food retailing knows that margins on food are so slender that no downward discernible movement in food prices will happen. Price controls on food?  More likely to lead to food shortages and rationing than any other result.  He promised higher taxes on the rich but most of that is outside his reach. And as the rich move out to escape their pips being squeaked, the tax yield will drop and either tax levels on the poor must be raised or deep cuts made in state budgets.  Enjoy this month and next, Mr Madani, because this is as much fun as it is likely to get. 

We should mention that there were also two gubernatorial elections on Tuesday last, in New Jersey and in Virginia.  Again we must poke a little fun at the BBC who reported overwhelming victories for the Democrats.  New Jersey is always pretty safe Democrat territory and had previously a Democrat governor, Phil Murphy, who could not run again. The new candidate was Mikie Sherrill, who won with 56% against Mr Murphy’s previous 51% so no change there.  It is a state to watch though as that Republican drift out of New York is slowly causing an erosion of the Democrat vote. Sherrill is a mainstream traditional Democrat, ex Navy followed by the law followed by assistant Attorney General in New Jersey, then into the House of Representatives by winning a marginal New Jersey seat with a strong campaign.  She reaped her reward with the Governorship.

In Virgina again is the phenomenon of suburb drift (from Washington DC) which had benefitted the very strong and politically skilled (i.e  he manages not to upset D Trump without sounding Trumpian) Glenn Youngkin. Governors there only get one term, alas for Mr Youngkin, as he probably would have won again.  His chosen successor was Winsome Earle-Sears, well known locally as Lieutenant-Governor, but who as it turned out lacked Mr Youngkin’s ability to execute skilled footwork and managed to upset a number of special interest groups, and came down rather heavily to defeat by Abigail Spanberger, 57% to 43%. Ms Spanberger worked for the CIA (it did no harm to George Bush either), then was elected from Virginia to the Houses of Representatives in 2017, and now moves on to Governor. She, like Ms Sherrill, is a moderate mainstream Democrat and the perfect candidate for the calm ways of Virginia.

So what conclusions do we draw from these north-eastern contests?  Perhaps, not a pronounced swing away from Mr Trump and the Republicans, but a movement back towards moderation and courtesy, to a more traditional form of politics.  Certainly, good natured candidates did well; Mr Mamdani was anxious to play down his fiery youth, but even so the traditionalist Cuomo did well in the circumstances.

And if you think either of these new female Governors would be good future presidential material, you must be right.  That ought to make the Republicans think about what happens post Trump.