Donald Duck
by Stoker
Oh dear, Donald. A lame duck president writ so large, he is more of a lame dodo. “Vote” said Donald, “as if I were on the ballot.” So they did, giving a spectacular raspberry to the 45th and 47th president.
Just to summarise the results at the time of writing, the Republicans lost control of the Senate (but still counting in Alaska and Mississippi - are they poor adders-up? ) so that the Democrats have 54 seats (at least) to the Republicans 44. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats have so far won 254 seats to the GOP’s 165, and the Democrats won 28 Governorships to the Republicans 20. This is a disaster for the Republican Party, though as we suggest later, it may be the crucible for its rebirth. The political map of the USA remains, as it has done for many decades, blue around the edges and red in the centre; but now the blue part has got bigger and the red part smaller.
None of this is a surprise, except perhaps to President Trump; it is very much as had been predicted in the opinion polls. There are a couple of stand-outs. Florida under Governor Ron DeSantis remains strongly Republican without the spectacular swing to blue seen elsewhere, a tribute perhaps to Ron and the quality of GOP candidates there. Contrarywise, Texas, regarded as an increasingly strong Republican state since the turn of the century with a long serving popular governor, Greg Abbott, went Democrat, though the Republicans held the Texas Senate. This may be a blip. The general explanation seems to be that Texans resent big government, though they are unlikely to get less of it under the new Democrat leadership. One leading citizen certainly not happy is a local businessman, a Mr Elon Musk, who has recently relocated from California, and may now have to move on again, together with several major techno businesses, to escape the tax and control regime likely to emanate from the state capitol building in Austin.
But it is perhaps difficult to have too much sympathy for the wreck of billionaires’ dreams, and no doubt many of our readers will feel minimum sympathy for the 47th President. As we pondered last time, Mr Trump is history. He has lost control of the legislature and anything he wants to do will require careful negotiation and the use of charm; and these are not noted as strong key skills of The Donald. It’s worse than that, though. Many new Senators and Congresspersons are taking the last two years personally and are out to get DT. Every appointment seems likely to be blocked, every initiative overridden. Bye-bye the Trump Arch, the JFK Trump Library and Museum, and maybe even the White House ballroom. The Gulf of Mexico can breathe again; maps will be allowed to retain their traditional nomenclature.
Most worrying of all for the President, is the real risk of impeachment. That requires a 67% majority in the Senate so is perhaps unlikely, but given the Republican Party’s growing dislike of the President, and its urge not to be associated with him (two years to the next presidential election remember, so the GOP has to move fast) there may be some support on those benches for doing down a man who has turned into a colossal failure and embarrassment. At the very least, impeachment will be a huge distraction in the White House, and very weakening to Donald’s only remaining sphere of fairly independent action: foreign affairs.
The GOP is out on manoeuvres already, with Vice-President Vance continuing his rather elegant distancing from his boss whilst of course denying any ambitions in 2028 whatsoever. So is a voice from the past, from deepest Florida, Ron DeSantis, beaten down by the Donald last time but having kept his head down and honed his skills and reputation in the south, back and looking confident. And a voice from the present, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, is rumoured to be considering resigning from his job and the cabinet. Tricky one for Marco; most commentators blame the war on Iran as what has most upset Mr Trump’s supporters, and Marco is, you, know, just a bit implicated in that. But as the inquest gets underway in the Republican tearooms, other causes of defeat will come to the fore: the economy, (stupid), energy costs, the erosion of American’s standing in the world, confused policy towards Ukraine, the vanity of The Donald, the vulgarity. In fact, one might suspect that, as with many modern comedians, the audience at first loved the novelty and wit (Crooked Hillary; Sleepy Joe; Pocahantas Warren) but now want a new act. Seen this, heard that, off the stage with you.
Nothing much will happen in the next two years in domestic US politics; it’s the politics of deadlock now. Looking at the views and leanings of some of the new Democrat electees, that’s probably just as well. It gives time for the Republicans to become a nice moderate party, back to the affability of Ford, Bush and Reagan. The Democrats seem unlikely to become born-again Obama-ites or Clinton clones though. There is no obvious Presidential candidate on the blue side of American politics, and the nosiest ones are least likely to develop broad appeal to Democrats, let alone floating voters. But then who knows? We note an extraordinary moderating of the views and language of that radical hotbox, Ms Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, returned again as Congresswoman for New York’s 14th district with 78% of the votes. AOC in fact is not so much moderating as saying a lot less; that suggests serious ambition for the next step in her career.
We predict that in two years time, with the Republicans rid of their greatest embarrassment, and the long term trends in voting habits, these amazing electoral results may show a startling reversal.
Last time we touched on what the Trump legacy might be. Since then we have been perusing Andrew Roberts on Napoleon. And seeing some similarities, in character at least. Not in everything – Napoleon was pretty competent in administration, if not in military judgement, and had a remarkable flair – Thatcher-like, to stir our readership – in appointments of exceptionally able men to key roles in government. Mr Trump shows little sign of those skills, but he does have a Bonaparte-like remarkable self-belief and never-ceasing drive. Could he yet reemerge as a political force for his last two years of office? No? Well, nobody expected Napoleon to escape Elba.
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